ChatGPT and the MPT:
A conversation between a climate researcher and a chatbot
by
Manfred Mudelsee
(Climate Risk Analysis, Germany)
published on
February 13, 2023
at
https://www.manfredmudelsee.com/media/Mudelsee-2023-ChatGPT-and-MPT.html
License:
CC BY 4.0. You can use
this piece as a whole for non-commercial activities, please give the author's
name and the original URL.
Acknowledgements:
This project has received
funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation
programme under Grant Agreement No 101036480. I thank Mersku
Alkio (RBZ Wirtschaft,
Kiel, Germany) for helpful comments.
Introduction
My name is Manfred
Mudelsee. I am a climate researcher from Germany. On February 2, 2023 I had a
conversation with an AI-based chatbot called ChatGPT. It was about a subject from paleoclimate
sciences to which I had in the mid-1990s contributed a few academic research
papers. The Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition (MPT) initiated the late
Pleistocene ice age several hundreds of thousands years ago. About my
conversation partner I do not know very much. There is currently some hype in
(not only) German media about the chances and dangers of AI-based chatbots. For example, Spiegel Online fears that written
homework by students will have to be completely re-evaluated due to a student’s
option to cheat with the help of the bot. Anyhow, after a registration with https://chat.openai.com/chat, I had this conversation. My main
conclusion is that currently there is not much to fear. This text is organized
as follows. Firstly, in a short bio including own references on the MPT, I help
a reader to assess how trustworthy I may be. Secondly, the conversation
follows. The original statements by me and ChatGPT
are in black, my later comments and explanations in blue. Thirdly, I summarize
what I learned from the chat and give reasons for my all-clear.
1. Mudelsee
The German Wikipedia (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manfred_Mudelsee, February 9, 2023) tells about me
(AI-based translator DeepL, https://www.deepl.com/translator):
“Manfred Mudelsee (born October 6, 1962 in Heidelberg) is a German
climatologist. The focus of his scientific work is paleoclimatology,
meteorology, hydrology and statistics. Among other things, he researches
weather extremes (for example, floods) and their connections with climate
change. He produces risk analyses for extreme weather events based on
statistical time series analyses and mathematical simulation methods. With an
h-index of 44 (as of October 2022), he is a widely cited scientist in his field
of research, according to the Scopus database.” At Google Scholar, my
publication numbers are as follows (https://scholar.google.de/citations?user=WzAFwQQAAAAJ&hl=de, February 9, 2023): 13758 citations,
h-index 52. At my academic website (https://www.manfredmudelsee.com, February 9, 2023), there are listed 91
academic, peer-reviewed papers and also two books, one from 2014 on climate
time series analysis and one from 2020 on the statistical analysis of climate
extremes. Finally, as regards the MPT, the following two papers of mine are
relevant:
Mudelsee M, Schulz M
(1997) The Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition: Onset of 100 ka
cycle lags ice volume build-up by 280 ka. Earth and
Planetary Science Letters 151:117–123. [435 citations, Google Scholar, February
9, 2023]
Mudelsee M, Stattegger K (1997) Exploring the structure of the
mid-Pleistocene revolution with advanced methods of time-series analysis.
International Journal of Earth Sciences 86:499–511. [165 citations, Google
Scholar, February 9, 2023]
2. Conversation
Manfred Mudelsee (MM): Review the literature about the Mid-Pleistocene
Climate Transition.
(Comment: I was in a good
mood that evening. The online course I was teaching that day had academically
excellent and friendly participants. Then I could get online access to ChatGPT, which was not possible a few weeks earlier,
seemingly because of insufficient site capacity. So decided to chat a bit about
what I studied a while ago, during my PhD years at Univ. Kiel. On a personal
level, please also note that, as a chessplayer who
had started in the 1970s, I felt in an “attacking mode” against a player that
is being praised by so many.)
ChatGPT: The mid-Pleistocene climate transition (MPT) is a significant shift in
Earth's climate that occurred about 1 million years ago. The MPT is
characterized by a change from a predominantly 41,000-year cycle of ice ages to
a 100,000-year cycle.
Studies
have shown that the MPT was likely caused by changes in the Earth's orbit,
which altered the amount of solar radiation received by the planet. This change
in solar radiation caused an increase in the amount of ice volume on the
planet, leading to a cooling of the global climate.
Other
factors that have been considered as contributing to the MPT include changes in
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, ocean circulation patterns, and volcanic
activity.
Research
has also shown that the MPT had a significant impact on the distribution of
glaciers, sea level, and ocean temperatures. It has also been linked to the
evolution of early humans, as the shift in climate may have contributed to the
development of new adaptations and migration patterns.
Overall,
the MPT remains an active area of research in the Earth sciences, and further
study is needed to fully understand its causes and effects on the planet's
climate and biosphere.
(Comment: A minor
quibble would be that “Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition” should be
capitalized, it is an entity similar to, for example, the “Last Glacial
Maximum”. Then, overall and at first sight, the text reads well. However, I
felt that to a certain degree the global ice volume, and its role in
introducing the 100 ka ice-age cycle, was not
adequately acknowledged. The unit “ka” stands for “kiloyears” or thousand years.)
MM: Review the literature about the Mid-Pleistocene
Climate Transition in special regard to ice volume.
ChatGPT: The mid-Pleistocene climate transition (MPT) is widely recognized as a
major shift in Earth's climate system that led to a 100,000-year cycle of ice
ages. One of the most significant changes associated with the MPT was an
increase in ice volume, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere.
Studies
of ice cores and sediment records have shown that ice volume increased
significantly during the MPT, leading to the formation of large ice sheets in
North America and Eurasia. This increase in ice volume is believed to have been
a key factor in the cooling of the global climate and the shift to a
100,000-year cycle of ice ages.
Modeling studies have suggested that changes in the Earth's
orbit, particularly in the amount of summer insolation received in high
latitudes, were the primary driver of the increase in ice volume during the
MPT. However, other factors, such as changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels and ocean circulation patterns, may have also played a role.
The
impact of the MPT on ice volume has been widely studied and is considered to be
one of the most important factors in the evolution of the Earth's climate
system. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that led
to the increase in ice volume and the role it played in shaping the Earth's
climate during the mid-Pleistocene.
(Comment:
Still, the bot writes that MPT caused ice volume changes, and it underestimates
the driving role of ice-volume changes on the MPT. On the contrary, Mudelsee
and Schulz (1997) found that at around 920 ka ago,
there was a considerable increase in ice volume, which could have filled the
Barents and Kara Sea regions and thus had strengthened marine-based (i.e.,
vulnerable) ice sheets, which in turn may have brought the ice-bedrock-carbon
dioxide system into a more nonlinear state. That state allowed for bigger,
quasi-periodic, sawtooth-shaped ice volume changes
(glacial-to-interglacial) and finally led to the emergence of the 100 ka cycle that, according to the statistical time series
analyses done in the paper, set in only at around 650 ka.
From today’s viewpoint, I think it is fair to say that this picture has not yet
been refuted by others, although there are several other explanations of the
MPT. The reader should bear in mind that relevant papers on the MPT have to
deal with the mid-to-late Pleistocene, that is, a time frame from roughly 950
to 500 ka ago.)
MM: Review the literature and give at least 8 key
references about the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition in special regard to
ice volume.
ChatGPT: Here are 8 key references on the mid-Pleistocene climate transition
(MPT) in relation to ice volume:
Huybers, P. (2006). Early Pleistocene
glacial cycles and the integrated summer insolation forcing. Science,
313(5786), 508-511.
Raymo, M. E., & Mitrovica, J.
X. (2012). Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet after local
destabilization of the Amundsen Basin. Nature, 482(7385), 514-518.
(Comment:
paper is irrelevant for the MPT because of wrong time frame.)
Dutton, A.,
& Lambeck, K. (2012). Ice volume and sea level during the
last interglacial. Science, 337(6097), 216-219. (Comment: paper is irrelevant for the MPT
because of wrong time frame. The last interglacial was at around 130 ka ago.)
Otto-Bliesner,
B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J.,
Abe-Ouchi, A., & Joussaume,
S. (2006). Mid-Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and
implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO2. Quaternary Science
Reviews, 25(1-2), 31-44.
Huybers, P., & Wunsch, C.
(2004). Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations.
Nature, 427(6975), 587-590.
Clark, P. U.,
& Mix, A. C. (2002). Ice sheets and sea level of the last glacial maximum.
Quaternary Science Reviews, 21(1-3), 1-6. (Comment: paper is irrelevant for the MPT
because of wrong time frame. Last Glacial Maximum was at around 21 ka ago.)
Tarasov, L., Peltier, W. R., &
Ritz, C. (2005). The
mid-Pleistocene transition: a bipolar seesaw in the ocean?.
Science, 309(5739), 1545-1548.
Adkins, J. F.,
& Boyle, E. A. (2000). Mid-Pleistocene transition in the
oxygen isotopic record of deep-sea sediments. Nature, 406(6793),
826-829.
These
references provide a good starting point for understanding the MPT in relation
to ice volume and its impact on the Earth's climate system.
MM: Review the literature before the year 2000 and give
at least 20 key references about the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition in
special regard to ice volume.
(Comment: I was of
course a bit unhappy that the bot missed my papers. Therefore I allowed a second
chance and gave a hint to look for earlier works.)
ChatGPT: Here are 20 key references on the mid-Pleistocene climate transition
(MPT) in relation to ice volume, published before the year 2000:
Imbrie, J., Hays, J. D., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A.,
Mix, A. C., Morley, J. J., & Pisias, N. G.
(1984). The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: Support from a revised
chronology of the marine δ18O record. Milankovitch
and Climate, pp. 269-305. (Comment: paper is hardly relevant for the MPT since only one dataset
(V28-238) from five goes back in time far enough. Of course, the paper is a
classic for the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages
via orbital cycles.)
Shackleton, N. J., & Hall, M. A. (1987). Oxygen isotope stratigraphy of the
Last Interglacial in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Quaternary
Research, 27(2), 143-159. (Comment: paper is irrelevant for the MPT because of wrong time frame.
The last interglacial was at around 130 ka ago.)
Clark, P. U. (1986). Ice sheets and sea level of the last glacial maximum.
Quaternary Research, 25(3), 381-390. (Comment: paper is irrelevant for the MPT
because of wrong time frame. Last Glacial Maximum was at around 21 ka ago.)
CLIMAP Project
Members (1976). The Surface of the Ice-Age Earth. Science, 191(4217),
1131-1137. (Comment:
paper is irrelevant for the MPT because of wrong time frame. Last Glacial
Maximum, which was here mapped by CLIMAP, was at around 21 ka
ago.)
Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., & Shackleton, N.
J. (1976).
Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages. Science, 194(4270),
1121-1132. (Comment:
paper is irrelevant for the MPT because of wrong time frame (past 500 ka). Of course, the paper is a classic for the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages via orbital cycles.)
Vostok Ice Core Members (1993). Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J.,
Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola,
J. M., Basile, I., ... & Hammer, C. U. Climate
and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok
ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 364(6434), 407-412. (Comment: paper is irrelevant for the MPT
because of wrong time frame (past 420 ka).)
Dansgaard,
W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N., Hammer, C. U., ... & Sveinbjornsdottir, A.
E. (1993). Evidence for general instability of past climate
from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature, 364(6434), 218-220. (Comment: paper is irrelevant for the MPT
because of wrong time frame.)
Shackleton, N. J. (1977). Paleotemperature analysis of deep-sea cores. Quaternary Research, 8(2),
171-184. (Comment:
this paper does not exist.)
Jansen, E., Overpeck,
J., Briffa, K. R., Duplessy,
J. C., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte,
V., ... & Peterschmitt,
J. Y. (2007). Paleoclimate. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 433-497). Cambridge
University Press. (Comment: this paper is not from before 2000. Furthermore, it is hardly
relevant for the MPT since it employs old climates (mid Pliocene) mainly as
analogues of possible future climate states.)
Lisiecki, L. E., & Raymo, M. E.
(2005). A
Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O
records. (Comment:
this paper is not from before 2000. Furthermore, it is hardly relevant for the MPT
since it deals with the construction of a stack and less with the causes of
Pleistocene climate changes.)
[Interrupted by MM] (Comment: I became annoyed because the bot
presented almost only irrelevant papers and now even has started to ignore the
constraint “before the year 2000”.)
MM: Why do you give the reference "Jansen, E., Overpeck, J., Briffa, K. R., Duplessy, J. C., Joos, F.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., ...
& Peterschmitt, J. Y. (2007). Paleoclimate. In Climate Change
2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp.
433-497). Cambridge University Press.", when I ask for references that
were published before 2000?
ChatGPT: I apologize for the mistake. The reference "Jansen, E., Overpeck, J., Briffa, K. R., Duplessy, J. C., Joos, F.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., ...
& Peterschmitt, J. Y. (2007). Paleoclimate. In Climate
Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp.
433-497). Cambridge University Press." was published after the year 2000,
and therefore does not meet the criteria of being published before the year
2000. Thank you for bringing this to my attention.
MM: Why do not cite the papers by Mudelsee on the
Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition? ] (Comment:
Finally, instead of my ego-googling, I come up with
“ego-chatbotting”.)
ChatGPT: I apologize for not mentioning the papers by Mudelsee on the
mid-Pleistocene climate transition. Manfred Mudelsee is a highly respected
climate scientist, and his work on the MPT has contributed significantly to our
understanding of the relationship between ice volume and the MPT. Some of his
key references on this topic include:
Mudelsee, M.
(2001). The
phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice
volume over the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science
Reviews, 20(1-3), 583-589.
Mudelsee, M.
(2002). Climate
time series analysis: classical statistical and bootstrap methods. Springer Science & Business Media.
Mudelsee, M.
(2010).
Climate: The Counter-Consensus. Routledge.
These
are just a few examples of Mudelsee's contributions
to the field. I hope this helps to address your question. (Comment: Again, as in the beginning, the
overall first impression is nice (“highly respected”). But then you find out
that the expression “highly respected” is mere buzz. Many human reporters use
this in order to prevent people from doubting about what follows. However, all
three papers attributed to me are not relevant to the MPT. The first one
(Mudelsee, 2001) has a wrong time frame; it is based on the Vostok
ice core data, containing a record of atmospheric carbon dioxide that goes back
to 420 ka, that is, farthest back in Earth’s history
as was possible at the time of writing the manuscript. The second is my book on
time series analysis; however, that is from 2010 (1st edition) or 2014 (2nd
edition), not 2002. And the content of that book has nearly nothing to do with
the MPT since it is about statistical analysis techniques for climate data; the
MPT is mentioned only once, and then only as an example where a particular
statistical technique (ramp regression) had been applied in the past. On the
third work, see the following part of the conversation.)
MM: Please give the full details of the reference
"Mudelsee, M. (2010). Climate: The Counter-Consensus. Routledge." including a URL.
ChatGPT: Here is the full reference details of the book "Climate: The
Counter-Consensus" by Manfred Mudelsee:
Mudelsee, M.
(2010).
Climate: The Counter-Consensus. Routledge. ISBN: 978-0-415-56375-3 URL:
https://www.routledge.com/Climate-The-Counter-Consensus/Mudelsee/p/book/9780415563753
This
book provides a comprehensive overview of the scientific debate surrounding the
causes and consequences of climate change, and presents the counter-consensus
view of climate change and its impact on the global environment. The author,
Manfred Mudelsee, is a leading climate scientist and his work provides valuable
insights into the complexities of the climate system and the challenges of
predicting future climate change.
MM: The URL you give does not exist.
ChatGPT: I apologize for the incorrect URL. Here is the correct URL for the book
"Climate: The Counter-Consensus" by Manfred Mudelsee:
https://www.routledge.com/Climate-The-Counter-Consensus-Manfred-Mudelsee/book/9780415563753
MM: The URL you give does not exist.
ChatGPT: I apologize for the incorrect URL. I was unable to locate the exact URL
for the book "Climate: The Counter-Consensus" by Manfred Mudelsee.
However, you can search for the book on websites such as Amazon or Google Books
to obtain more information and purchase options.
MM: Please note it was you who presented the reference
"Mudelsee, M. (2010). Climate: The Counter-Consensus. Routledge. ISBN: 978-0-415-56375-3 URL: https://www.routledge.com/Climate-The-Counter-Consensus/Mudelsee/p/book/9780415563753".
ChatGPT: I apologize for the incorrect URL. I apologize for any confusion I may
have caused. If you have difficulty finding the book through online means, you
may try checking local libraries or used bookstores for availability.
MM: I mean if you cite a book and give a reference, then
it is your task to check for the correctness of the reference.
ChatGPT: I apologize for the incorrect URL and for any inconvenience it may have
caused. As an AI language model, I strive to provide accurate information and
references, but I am not perfect and mistakes can occur. Thank you for bringing
this to my attention, and I will make sure to double-check references in the
future to avoid similar errors.
MM: My view is that the following does not exist:
"Mudelsee, M. (2010). Climate: The Counter-Consensus. Routledge. ISBN:
978-0-415-56375-3 URL: https://www.routledge.com/Climate-The-Counter-Consensus/Mudelsee/p/book/9780415563753"
Do you agree yes or no??
ChatGPT: Yes, I agree that the URL I provided previously is incorrect and does
not exist. I apologize for any confusion or inconvenience caused by the
incorrect information.
MM: I am deeply sorry, but I did not mean that the URL
does not exist (that is beyond question), I rather
mean that the book itself does not exist. Agreement?
ChatGPT: Yes, I agree that the book "Climate: The Counter-Consensus" by
Manfred Mudelsee with ISBN 978-0-415-56375-3 may not exist. I apologize for the
confusion caused by my previous answer. Thank you for bringing this to my
attention.
MM: Why do you write "may" not exist although it
*does* not exist?
ChatGPT: I apologize for my previous statements. You are correct, the book
"Climate: The Counter-Consensus" by Manfred Mudelsee with ISBN
978-0-415-56375-3 does not exist. I apologize for any confusion caused by my
incorrect information. Thank you for bringing this to my attention. (Comment: I am optimistic that readers can understand my frustration at
this point of our conversation. It took eight further questions or reminders by
me until it was finally acknowledged by my conversation partner that the cited
book does not exist. Please note: Google Books
(https://books.google.de/books/about/Climate.html?id=GDtSAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y,
February 9, 2023) mentions a book: Carter RM (2010) Climate: The Counter Consensus : A Palaeoclimatologist
Speaks. Stacey International, 315 pp. However, the
book was written not by me, but by someone characterized by English Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_M._Carter,
February 9, 2022) as “prominent in promoting climate change denial.” It could
well be that also Carter did abuse my paper (Mudelsee M (2001) The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content,
temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka.
Quaternary Science Reviews 20:583–589), as have so many
“climate change deniers” done in the past. A little background: In the
paper, I quantified the time lag between changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration and air temperature using the data from the Antarctic station Vostok, that is, ice core time series that cover the past
420 ka, and I found that first temperature changed
and only 1.3 ka later (with an error bar of 1.0 ka) did carbon dioxide change. Because of the abuse in the
internet by many people, I added the following paragraph into the 2nd edition
of my book on climate time series analysis. “It is important to note that the
characteristic timescales on which the analysed Pleistocene climate changes
occurred are relatively long: the average [temporal] spacing, the estimated lag
and its estimation error are between several hundred and a few thousand years.
The late Pleistocene lag estimates are therefore hardly relevant as regards
concepts about the ongoing climate change, which is anthropogenically enhanced since, say, 150 years. This
recent change is considerably faster than the late Pleistocene change, it leads
to [atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration] levels not experienced during at
least the past 800 ka and it affects other physical
processes. The consideration from physics and meteorology that the recent
change has a positive time lag ([carbon dioxide] rise before temperature rise)
is not contradicted by the finding that the late Pleistocene change had a
negative time lag.” To summarize, ChatGPT came to
conclude that (1) Mudelsee did write a book that includes ideas of climate
change deniers and (2) these ideas had something to do with the MPT. Both
points (1) and (2) are patently wrong.)
MM: Then, please tell me about -- why did you bring up
that book "Climate: The Counter-Consensus"? (Comment:
I thought, OK, let me try whether I can find out
something from an AI machine on the abuse of my 2001 paper.)
ChatGPT: I apologize for mentioning the book "Climate: The
Counter-Consensus" in response to your earlier question about key
references for the mid-pleistocene climate transition
in special regard to ice volume. As an AI language model, I generate responses
based on the input I receive, and I may sometimes provide incorrect or
irrelevant information. I apologize for any confusion or misinformation I may
have provided.
MM: To end this exchange of opinions between an AI tool
and a climate researcher -- do you feel OK if I personally would prefer to not
rely on your expertise as regards the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition?
ChatGPT: Of course, as an AI language model, I understand that my responses may
not always meet the specific needs or standards of every user. Feel free to
seek information and references from other sources if you believe that they
better suit your needs or preferences. Thank you for using OpenAI's
GPT-3 and I hope that I have been able to assist you in some way.
3. Summary
In the chat, I had to
find out that I cannot learn from the chatbot,
neither on the MPT nor on the abuse of my work by deniers. What stays in my
mind: ChatGPT has no documented ability to adequately
deal with climate change research literature (reading, summarizing or citing),
and ChatGPT could not convince me on the example of a
climate transition that the software exercises an adequate quality control of
what source texts enter its algorithms. Such an opponent is not to fear!
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