|IPCC (2007) and
|In its Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC states (Trenberth et al. 2007: page 311 therein): "... there is no significant trend in flood occurrences of the Elbe within the last 500 years (Mudelsee et al., 2003)."
Lomborg (2007: page 82 therein) reports "Likewise, in Europe, a study of the two major rivers, the Oder and the Elbe (which flooded Prague and Dresden in 2002), showed that over the past centuries summer floods show no trend and winter floods have actually decreased.", referring to Mudelsee et al. (2003).
As lead author of the cited paper, I remark that both citations are not entirely correct.
Hannover, 13 November 2007, Manfred Mudelsee
Lomborg B (2007) Cool It. The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming. Knopf, New York, 253 pp.
Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U (2003) No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425:166169.
Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein Tank A, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller HL Jr, Chen Z (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 235336.
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